Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects

Strategic voting in politics exists, especially among more informed voters, yet to a lesser degree than we’d assume

Conclusion

Substantively, we found that participants were, on average, able to translate poll information into reasonable election forecasts. By looking at the accurate perception of polls and coalition signals embedded in a steady stream of political information within our dynamic information board set-up, two strikingly different findings emerge.

Pure strategic voting exists as well, although to a smaller extent than is assumed in previous studies. Folks change their vote for other reasons and therefore pure strategic voting needs to be separated from simply changing votes for other reasons.